Complication With Optimistic Outcome

I'll skip the predictable picks this year; no need to waste valuable pixels talking about Natalie Portman.

Bold = will win
Italics = should win

Best Animated Short

45% Day & Night
25% Madagascar, carnet de voyage
20% The Gruffalo
5% The Lost Thing
5% Let's Pollute

Day & Night has the double advantage of being widely screened in front of Toy Story 3 and of actually being good (although it may lose votes if it is confused with that Tom Cruise biopic). While Madagascar, carnet de voyage is the most visually inventive of the five, I think its schizophrenic style and narrative will hurt its chances with voters. I'll give even money to The Gruffalo which was not available on iTunes (meaning it will probably win).

Best Live Action Short

60% Na Wewe
12% The Confession
10% God of Love
5% Wish 143
3% The Crush

Na Wewe should walk away with the award; it's immediately gripping and packs a profound message: that both genocide victims and perpetrators alike listen to U2. God of Love is cute and charming in that Wes Anderson style, but feels a bit too much like a Senior Thesis Film Project to win an Oscar. And while I want to think that The Crush and The Confession - both grim stories of Catholic school children gone bad - should cancel themselves out, I have a vague feeling that The Confession might win as it is a very "serious" movie indeed.

Foreign Language Film

33.99% Incendies
31% In a Better World
25% Biutiful
10% Outside the Law
.01% Dogtooth

Smart money is on In A Better World, a thinly veiled morality play stocked with all manner of perfectly calibrated plot points designed to get the waterworks flowing. Divorced or widower parents unable to connect with their bullied tweens? Check. Characters staring out of windows as minor key piano plays gracefully in the background? Check. Pregnant African women cut up by their local warlord? Check. It's prototypical Oscar-bait, but it's also forthright with its intentions and still fairly effective. Biutiful also looks like it has the inside track with Javier Bardem's Oscar nod, but reviews have made it seem absolutely dreadful. Finally, although I have not seen it, I have heard nothing but amazing word of mouth about Incendies from when it screened at the Portland International Film Festival and - quite surprisingly - the best film tends to win the Foreign Language Film Oscar. But after The White Ribbon and The Prophet - two of last year's best films in any category - lost, all bets are off.

I'll never understand why these movies aren't released in theaters or on iTunes prior to the Oscars. Four of these films will never have as high an exposure with American audiences after Sunday night.

Documentary

40% Inside Job
35% Restrepo
10% Gasland
10% Waste Land
5% Exit Through the Gift Shop

Restrepo is an impressive feat of filmmaking, but Afghanistan is so 2008. Beyond its indictment of academic institutions being complicit in the financial crisis (Larry Summers was like the Nick Fury of 2010 Oscar Nominees), Inside Job never quite lands a knockout blow like Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room and instead settles for cheap gotcha journalism and ends on an embarrassingly patriotic note -- meaning it should win the statue. My personal pick is Bansky's mercurial Exit Through Gift Shop which is too elusive to win, but should provide a few brief moments of titillation as the camera pans around the audience for a potential shot of the elusive street artist. Banksy has to be Jacki Weaver, right?

Directing

41% David Fincher (The Social Network)
40% Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
12% Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
6% Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
1% David O. Russell (The Fighter)

I have nothing new to add to the commentary of this category other than the continual disbelief that the academy hates Christopher Nolan. Did he fail his Operating Thetan license exam or something? Also, my 19-year old self is pretty psyched that Fincher, Aronofsky, the Coens, and Russell (to a lesser extent) are all up for Best Director. Hard to believe the director of The King's Speech is the youngest of the bunch.

Best Picture

31% The King's Speech
30% The Social Network
15% True Grit
10% The Fighter
6% Black Swan
4% 127 Hours
3% Inception
.94% The Kids Are All Right
.05% Winter's Bone
.01% Toy Story 3

Trying to predict the Oscars is like playing Rock-Paper-Scissors: it is easy to outthink yourself in what is essentially a game of guessing whether the Academy is going to pick the actual best film (ie. No Country For Old Men, the least offensive M.O.R. movie (Million Dollar Baby, or the one that is Cleared Theta Clear (Crash). After repeatedly selecting typical Oscar fair in the early 00's ("A Beautiful Mind" being the worst offender), the Academy has done a fairly admirable job of rewarding the "best" of the nominees with the Oscar -- much to my prediction ballot's regret. Maybe it's the gambler's fallacy speaking, but that streak has to end eventually. What is Oscar night without the requisite pissing and moaning?

The King's Speech is a proper candidate - it has wide appeal across all demographics, it's fairly tame beyond a few choice curse words, and it glosses over historical realities for the further sanctification of the Greatest Generation. I certainly won't begrudge a victory for The King's Speech; it is a fine film, with a lot of keen elements and Colin Firth deserves a make-up Oscar after last year. In contrast to The Social Network, however, it certainly feels like a reactionary choice.

The one wild card: True Grit, while unlikely to win, did get a large number of nominations and it might act the Ross Perot, splitting The King's Speech core older demographic.

#8s & Heartbreak

Still heartbroken, but for the best, I guess.

As a fan, I have felt a lingering dread ever since Williams commented "That's why I (only) signed a three-year deal" after the Ronnie Brewer trade. At the very least, it is a relief not to have to worry that every Jazz loss is a step closer to losing Williams. Although we are probably going to see a lot more over the coming months.

This season has been an unmitigated disaster, but I will always fondly remember that crazy four-game road come-from-behind win streak against the Heat, Magic, Hawks, and Bobcats -- including this unbelievable game-winner from Deron:



As for the closing credits montage, I would recommend watching this with Sarah McLachlan's "I Will Remember You" blasting out of your computer speakers:



Personally, I think I am done with the NBA until after the walkout season.

An archaeological prologue: Part 1

Journal entry: 8/22/07
What the hell was that?! The night before last I met this friend of [T] and [A] named [M]. She goes to school in Chicago. First thought was that she's super pretty and has nice eyes. The next night I go to meet all of them at the bowling alley and we hit it off. Yada yada yada, I just took her out on a date and we hung out until 1AM. We sat next to each other when everyone else had gone to bed. Like, touching. But we just talked. Nothing happened. She's rad to the max: funny, smart, going places, good family... We have tons in common and we totally hit it off. But nothing happened. I'm confused. We connected like crazy but it didn't feel like a fling. Didn't feel spinny. Didn't feel hot. But it did feel like something. Weird.

Journal entry: 10/25/07
Today is Wednesday, one week after I left Portland for Chicago. I didn't really know what was going to happen but I had high hopes. I really didn't know what kind of hopes exactly but I knew [M] and I had tons in common and would at least hit it off like we did in Portland. We did. I knew right away that something was going to happen and she told me later that she did too. We first kissed in the photo booth at the bar where [A] had her birthday party. We spent the rest of the time together. We were totally honest about everything, which was incredibly nice. The whole thing was a total blast. I don't know what to do now. I like her. I would talk to her all day if I could. I can absolutely see us together but the distance is too much. Neither of us want to be tied down. We've only known each other in person for all of 6 days. Be patient. See what happens. We'll be together for New Year's. If it's meant to be it'll be. Deep breaths. Take your time. Don't panic. Don't jump the gun. Let it happen. Miss her. Talk to her. Enjoy this as much as you can. The rest will take care of itself.

Journal entry: 3/2/08
My head has felt cloudy lately. Don't know why. I hope it goes away. Back from Chicago now. I went there thinking I was 100% psyched about [M]. Now I don't know what I think. I know we aren't going to work out long term. She's great but not quite right.

Chat with T: 9/19/08
t: hope work is going ok and that you're getting through the muddle.
me: thanks
i take it you guys heard the news then?
t: um, that your work is crazy?
me: oh
no
t: uh-oh.
me: the other muddle
t: um, not really.
me: there is also other muddle
unfortunately
t: hm. i did hear that you might not be coming this fall.
is that what you're referring to?
me: last night we actually decided to break up
t: i was really hoping you weren't going to say that.
me: yeah.
t: how are you?
me: i mean
i've been better
but i'm okay
mostly just sad
t: yeah, that's understandable.
i'm really sorry.
me: me too
t: is it really over? vs "taking some time"?
me: it's over but we both really care about each other
t: well you're both pretty awesome.
me: word
t: sorry i can't take you out to lunch.
me: thanks dude
me too
for reals
but i'll def talk to you soon

Chat with mom: 9/20/08
mom: how's my boy?
me: okay
it gets worse at night
i don't know why
mom: probably cause you're alone and night is when you talked?
me: we talked all day
mom: ah
everything's harder at night
and in the middle of the night, it's the worst
me: blugh
mom: poor benny
have you told anyone?
me: just [T]
mom: k
i feel so bad for you. you're so brave. you'll feel better in a while. that'll be good
me: agreed
it'll happen faster than i think
mom: that's good. you know, it's better to open up to relationships and suffer their loss than not open up at all, at least i think that's true...
me: i think so too
mom: and you're going to meet lots of good people in the future, esp. if you start hanging out in nyc!!
i'd take the pain away in a second if i could. hang in there. i'll look for you tomorrow - safe travels.
me: thanks momzer
i'll catch you later
mom: get REST
even if drugs are required

Radiodread

I was going to write a post about why I don't care about the new Radiohead album, but I'm not going to.

That would be like writing a blog post about why you still don't like that Ex-girlfriend you broke up with four years ago. There's really nothing new to say, even though she commented on the baby photos your friend just posted on Facebook. She didn't even say anything stupid or offensive. It just reminded you for five passionate minutes about how you still don't like her.

That's how I feel about Radiohead.

The other day I was all fired up because the same band that people were hailing for striking out against traditional business models with a 99/1 variant was going to charge $14 for WAV files. (Not OGG or lossless, mind you, WAV.)

Or that the band that is loudly against nuclear power and high electricity consumption is still sticking to an online-only distribution model.

Or that the band that is so outspoken against consumption and consumerism in general is selling a disposable "collectible" version of the album to the hardcore fans for $50.

Yeah. Of course it still irritates you that your Ex would pull out her Esperanto at dinner parties to start conversations. Or how she couldn't take a joke and how she'd correct you when she knew you were being ironic.

But it's time to move on. And, anyway, your current favorite is a lot more interesting.

All Star Weakend Power Rankings

I guess now's as good a time as any to do this, let's have a look at the NBA.

Current overall ranking based on record in brackets. W-L Record in parentheses.

1. [6] L.A. Lakers (38-19) - The Lakers have looked flawed. I think it's all about Pau Gasol, when he plays well the Lakers look like the best team in the league. When he doesn't the Lakers look like they can get beat by the Cavs. Still, I don't think I'll worry about them until they lose 4 games in the playoffs.
2. [3] Miami (41-15) - It will be very interesting to see this team in the playoffs.
3. [8] Orlando (36-21) - The Magic have struggled since making a pair of crazy trades. Hedo has done pretty well, Richardson and Arenas have not fit in well. If they can figure out a way to get everyone involved and on the same page this is the best team in the league. Big if.
4. [13] Utah (31-26) - wtf happened?
5. [4] Dallas (39-16) - Roddy's back, which solves a lot of the Caron Butler injury issue. They're a contender for sure.
6. [7] Oklahoma City (35-19) - Still playing well, still healthy. Still need one more piece to be a championship threat.
7. [2] Boston (40-14) - They look good. The team is much more solid now that Perkins is back.
8. [18] Houston (26-31) - This team is a real mess. Rebuilding mode starts as soon as Yao's contract is gone.
9. [9] Atlanta (34-21) - They are who we thought they were.
10. [10] Portland (32-24) - LaMarcus has become a star, like I always knew he would if the team would run an offense. Roy's story is a sad one, but Aldridge is now the future and he looks good. As much as I love Miller they need to look for a long term PG running mate. Aaron Brooks?
11. [22] Milwaukee (21-34) - This team is better than their record, not the eleventh best in the league, but they'll make a run at a playoff spot.
12. [5] Chicago (37-16) - Derrick Rose has been awesome. If Noah comes back and gives what we're used to seeing from him they're championship caliber.
13. [11] Denver (32-25) - Despite the melodrama they've been winning games. I'd say the odds are about 2:1 that Melo gets traded before the deadline.
14. [17] Phoenix (27-26) - Gortat was a good get, but Vince Carter has been unimaginably awful. Which is saying a lot.
15. [1] San Antonio (46-9) - Yeah yeah, I missed here. The Spurs have done an amazing job bringing up and developing their talent. The Spurs depth has given them the best record in the league while no player has averaged more than 32 minutes per game (Parker).
16. [14] Memphis (31-26) - Conley has fallen off like we knew he would. That contract is hideous. Their best player has been Zach Randolph. I like Z-Bo okay, but that's about as promising as your best player being Monta Ellis.
17. [23] L.A. Clippers (21-35) - The story here is that the future looks bright. As long as Griffin and Gordon can stay healthy for a season together. Oh, and Baron Davis needs to show up a bit more ready to go at the beginning of next season. So, it turns out the Clippers' story is still a tragedy.
18. [11] New Orleans (33-25) - This team still looks full of holes to me, but I'll reserve judgement until Okafor comes back. Also if Monty would figure out that Marcus Thornton is his best shooting guard I think that would help.
19. [17] Philadelphia (27-29) - Running the offense through Iguodala has been a short term boom. However I think this presents the same problems for the rest of the team as running the offense through Roy did in Portland. Really though, if they'd quit giving Lou Williams so much playing time I'd really like the look of this Philly squad going forward.
20. [26] Washington (15-39) - M - E - S - S.
21. [21] Charlotte (24-32) - Silas is definitely better than Larry Brown, but this team still sucks.
22. [30] Cleveland (10-46) - Cavs ain't got no alibi. Shoot for that first pick.
23. [28] Sacramento (13-40) - Let me see if I can help Westphal out. Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Landry, Cousins. That's your starting 5. Thompson, Dalembert and Garcia, when healthy, should see significant minutes off the bench. NOONE ELSE ON YOUR TEAM SHOULD GET ANY REAL BURN! Not Donte Green, not Darnell Jackson, not Luther Head.
24. [19] Indiana (24-30) - This team will be good next year. Even better the year after that. A lineup of Collison, George, Granger, Hansbrough, Hibbert looks pretty good in 2012. But the scary thing about Indiana is not only that they have a nice solid young core, but they will be one of the few teams under the new cap next year. They'll have the flexibility to add pieces and should have a pretty good idea of what they need.
25. [18] New York (28-26) - Their early success was partly a product of a gentle schedule, but they're about a .500 team. And in a good spot to build for next year.
26. [24] New Jersey (17-40) - Avery Johnson should not last long. What happened to Brook Lopez?
27. [23] Detroit (21-36) - Too many albatross contracts from players who are redundant on the squad. Rip and Gordon are similar players, Daye is like a mix between Tayshaun and Villanueva. . . and Kuester is awful. DEEETROIT BASKETBALL!
28. [17] Golden State (26-29) - Dorell Wright has been awesome, thanks to him this team is a lot better than I thought. But still not that good. 3 of their starting 5, Monta, Curry, and Lee, are huge defensive liabilities.
29. [27] Toronto (15-41) - Terrible. Pretty much Detroit, but with street cars.
30. [29] Minnesota (13-43) - In their wildest dreams they're Golden State.

So far I'm off by an average of 4.667. That doesn't seem so great, but it doesn't seem all that bad either, who knows.

If I had to re-rank them right now I'd go:

1. Boston
2. Miami
3. L.A.
4. San Antonio
5. Dallas
6. Orlando
7. Chicago

I don't think anyone else has much of a chance at a championship.

↑

The other day I spent some time looking over the HideouslyWrinkled archives. Reading over old posts brought back some fond memories and made me feel grateful to have all of you as friends. You're all quite brilliant and hilarious (some more so than others).

It's been too long since my last post. I think it's safe to say there's a direct correlation between my emotional well-being and the frequency with which I find time to reflect and contribute. I pretty much fell off the map shortly after I moved to Chicago. It's clear in hindsight that's no coincidence.

My shrink is the only one who knows the whole story of what's gone on these past couple of years. I've faced some really challenging times. Things have gotten better and better over the past year and a halfish and I finally feel like I have my feet back on the ground. Even though essentially my entire world has changed I'm beginning to feel like myself again.

Over the next several weeks I'd like to share the story of what's happened since I dropped off the map. Whether or not anyone wants to hear it I think the exercise will help me turn the page on this chapter of my life. I'm ready to move on.

The Blog-Ethicist: The Subscription Shuffle

Is it ethical to feign wanting to terminate service with a company in hopes of securing a discounted subscriber retention rate? Would it matter if said company was the largest media conglomerate in the world or the largest local metropolitan newspaper in the country? Anonymous, Portland, OR.

Best "New" Artist

Esperanza Spalding incited the rage of 13 year old girls and Twilight fans when she won the grammy for best new artist a couple days ago.



I'm not sure how good y'all's memories are, but Spalding came within a breath of winning Album of the Year from yours truly for 2008's Esperanza. Two years ago! And that wasn't even her debut album! Am I that much better a critic and more on the leading edge of popular music than whoever the grammy voters/deciders are?

Regardless this seemed fishy to me, how could an artist who dropped an album in 2006 win the grammy for 2010's best new artist? So I did some investigating. Turns out the rule is that an artist must have at least one album, and no more than three. Wtf? Arcade Fire qualify! (I won't even start into Arcade Fire's grammy win.) I can't tell if the strange Grammy developments this year make it more of a major label stroke fest or less. But it doesn't really matter I guess.

Allz I'm saying is the Biebz obviously deserved it! Nobody even knows who Esperanza Spalding is! I mean, is she hope? Is she a basketball? This is NOT FAIR NOT FAIR NOT FAIR!!!!!11!!1q1!!!~~!!W!

I'm never watching the Grammy's again.

How not to get a job recommendation

I can count, on one hand, the people whom I have actively disliked.

Four total.
Three women, one man.
Three I worked with.
Two in the 90s, two in the 00s.
Two I’ll definitely never see again.
One was from a social connection.
One I can’t even remember their name. (Obviously, I’m not actively disliking all four. It’s just too hard to dislike people.)
One you’ve already heard about.

The most recent was a graphic designer at my last job. I disliked her for a number of reasons. Mostly because she is a passive-aggressive bitch, but a lot because she didn’t like me.

A couple weeks ago, she sent me this gem:

Hi Mark,

How is work going? I haven't talk to you in a while. I hope things are going well for you.

Well, I am on the job hunt, mostly because this world is corrupt. But it's time to move on and find a new environment with better opportunity anyway. Let me know if you hear of anything.

Worst thing is, the only thing I was interested in, the manufactured drama was completely glossed over. Oh well.

Usually I say something pithy and try to put some meaning on disliking people or how hard it is to do it for more than when you’re seeing them every day. Except I can’t remember why I wanted to post this. Please let me know if you can think of a good reason.

. . . and 2 more.

1. Saw this comment under a Yahoo! Sports article and knew it had to be our very own B. Christensen:


The 49ers player was the biggest tipoff.

2. My prediction: with Williams gone after a strike season, Corbin struggles as head coach, leaving the window open for Karl Malone to usurp power in his own "crossing the Rubicon" moment. This, of course, sets in motion the historical inevitability of Ostertag's Caligula-like reign over the Jazz organization.

. . . and 1.

I caught the Jazz-Bulls game on tape-delay Thursday morning, so it was a bit of a shock to hop on Twitter to find rumors circulating that Jerry Sloan AND Phil Johnson were going to be resigning that afternoon.

I had to fight back a spit-take across my computer keyboard. The loss was a sucker punch to be sure, but mostly because the Jazz let it slip away from them with missed FTs and untimely turnovers. A typical Jazz loss; nothing to resign over.

24 hours later and I am still in shock. I can't even imagine what the atmosphere is going to be like in Energy Solutions Arena tonight.

We all knew this day was coming. I had my money on it happening during the inevitable 2012-2013 walkout year with Deron Williams heading for greener jersey-selling pastures. But in the middle of a season? From a team that was only one bad East coast trip away from being one of the top seeds in the West?

As with the Fisher situation, we will probably never learn all of the details. Still: unnamed sources aside, this looks really bad for Williams. He has done a decent job with damage control today, but if he leaves after his contract is finished, I fear he will be saddled with the responsibility for the implosion of a franchise. Just imagine the heel turn he will take among Jazz fans when he returns to Energy Solutions Arena in an opposing team's uniform.

Best not to think of it I guess. Instead, I will imagine fondly that somewhere out there Sloan is currently like a dizzy duck.

Coming to a Portland billboard near you.

I guess this means Andy Nelson and I can no longer be friends.