(eau)
More unsurprising picks for what is sure to be another unsurprising night. Please feel free to gloat come Monday morning.
Bold = will win
Italics = should win
Best Animated Short
70% A Matter of Loaf and Death
25% Logorama
3% The Lady and the Reaper
1% French Roast
1% Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
Three words: Wallace & Gromit. Pixar's mysterious absence should make this category a no brainer, but Logorama is the excessively violent and vulgar darkhorse -- and the most imaginative piece of cinema I have seen all year. Seriously, download it off of iTunes right now. Just don't watch it with your niece unless you want her to have nightmares of Ronald McDonald being sniped by the Michelin Man.
Best Live Action Short
30% The Door
25% Kavi
20% The New Tenants
15% Instead of Abracadabra
10% Miracle Fish
This is the hardest category to predict of the entire ceremony. My jaded heart tells me that the Academy is going to bite hard on The Door, a Holocaust-lite tale of the tragedy at Chernobyl, or Kavi, a didactic expose on human slavery in the third world. And it wouldn't surprise me if members are charmed by the Swedish Instead of Abracadabra, staring a mildly amusing cross between Napoleon Dynamite and Gob. But my personal pick is The New Tenants, a brilliantly sardonic Tarantinoesque short from David Rakoff. It is both heartbreaking and life-affirming -- a tough tonal line to walk in just under 20 minutes.
The entire line-up is surprisingly solid.
Best Animated Feature
80% Up
10% Fantastic Mr. Fox
5% The Princess and the Frog
4% Coraline
1% The Secret of Kells
I am going to be honest: I hate Pixar movies and I hated Up. Use this as an excuse to discredit everything I say in the future. Coraline and Fantastic Mr. Fox, on the other hand, are both fantastic.
Best Adapted Screenplay
55% Up in the Air (Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner)
35% In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci)
5% An Education (Nick Hornby)
4% Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (Geoffrey Fletcher)
1% District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell)
Up In The Air is going to win, which is ironic as the best parts of the movie are the unscripted confessionals. In The Loop is razor-sharp and quick-witted, but far too British for most Oscar voters.
Best Original Screenplay
30% Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
25% The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
20% The Messenger (Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman)
20% A Serious Man (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
5% Up (Tom McCarthy, Bob Peterson and Pete Docter)
Another tough category. The Hurt Locker has the critical cachet, but the script might be a little too spartan for its own good. The Coens won the same category too recently and Up would have been better as a silent film. I haven't seen The Messenger yet, but neither did anybody else. Which leaves us with Quentin Tarantino and how could you vote against a movie that contains the line: "Well, if this is it, old boy, I hope you don't mind I go out speaking the King's?"
Best Supporting Actress
70% Mo'Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
20% Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
7% Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
3% Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
1% Penélope Cruz (Nine)
The academy needs to abolish or consolidate the Best Supporting category. It can barely round up 10 worthy performance a year and at least half of the winners are real eye rollers. There is only one performance even worthy of being nominated for a supporting role this year...
Best Supporting Actor
96% Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
1% Matt Damon (Invictus)
1% Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
1% Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
1% Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
That's a bingo!
Best Actress
55% Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
30% Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
10% Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
4% Carey Mulligan (An Education)
1% Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
It is still unfathomable to me that I am actually typing Sandra Bullock and Oscar in the same sentence.
Best Actor
80% Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
10% Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
5% Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
4% Colin Firth (A Single Man)
1% George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Hard to begrudge The Dude winning an Oscar, but Colin Firth's performance in A Single Man was unparalleled.
Best Director
40% James Cameron (Avatar)
39% Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
11% Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
5% Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
5% Lee Daniels (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
Kathryn Bigelow is only the fourth woman to be nominated for best director. No woman has ever won the the award. I don't see the Academy breaking that glass celling anytime soon. Bigelow does have one thing working in her favor: James Cameron is a notorious asshole.
Best Picture
52.98% Avatar
37% The Hurt Locker
3% Up in the Air
2% Up
2% A Serious Man
1% An Education
1% Inglourious Basterds
1% Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
.01% The Blind Side
.01% District 9
Although Hurt Locker is the critics' darling, I can think of 714 million reasons why the Academy is going to opt for Avatar.
Bold = will win
Italics = should win
Best Animated Short
70% A Matter of Loaf and Death
25% Logorama
3% The Lady and the Reaper
1% French Roast
1% Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
Three words: Wallace & Gromit. Pixar's mysterious absence should make this category a no brainer, but Logorama is the excessively violent and vulgar darkhorse -- and the most imaginative piece of cinema I have seen all year. Seriously, download it off of iTunes right now. Just don't watch it with your niece unless you want her to have nightmares of Ronald McDonald being sniped by the Michelin Man.
Best Live Action Short
30% The Door
25% Kavi
20% The New Tenants
15% Instead of Abracadabra
10% Miracle Fish
This is the hardest category to predict of the entire ceremony. My jaded heart tells me that the Academy is going to bite hard on The Door, a Holocaust-lite tale of the tragedy at Chernobyl, or Kavi, a didactic expose on human slavery in the third world. And it wouldn't surprise me if members are charmed by the Swedish Instead of Abracadabra, staring a mildly amusing cross between Napoleon Dynamite and Gob. But my personal pick is The New Tenants, a brilliantly sardonic Tarantinoesque short from David Rakoff. It is both heartbreaking and life-affirming -- a tough tonal line to walk in just under 20 minutes.
The entire line-up is surprisingly solid.
Best Animated Feature
80% Up
10% Fantastic Mr. Fox
5% The Princess and the Frog
4% Coraline
1% The Secret of Kells
I am going to be honest: I hate Pixar movies and I hated Up. Use this as an excuse to discredit everything I say in the future. Coraline and Fantastic Mr. Fox, on the other hand, are both fantastic.
Best Adapted Screenplay
55% Up in the Air (Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner)
35% In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci)
5% An Education (Nick Hornby)
4% Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (Geoffrey Fletcher)
1% District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell)
Up In The Air is going to win, which is ironic as the best parts of the movie are the unscripted confessionals. In The Loop is razor-sharp and quick-witted, but far too British for most Oscar voters.
Best Original Screenplay
30% Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
25% The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
20% The Messenger (Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman)
20% A Serious Man (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
5% Up (Tom McCarthy, Bob Peterson and Pete Docter)
Another tough category. The Hurt Locker has the critical cachet, but the script might be a little too spartan for its own good. The Coens won the same category too recently and Up would have been better as a silent film. I haven't seen The Messenger yet, but neither did anybody else. Which leaves us with Quentin Tarantino and how could you vote against a movie that contains the line: "Well, if this is it, old boy, I hope you don't mind I go out speaking the King's?"
Best Supporting Actress
70% Mo'Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
20% Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
7% Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
3% Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
1% Penélope Cruz (Nine)
The academy needs to abolish or consolidate the Best Supporting category. It can barely round up 10 worthy performance a year and at least half of the winners are real eye rollers. There is only one performance even worthy of being nominated for a supporting role this year...
Best Supporting Actor
96% Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
1% Matt Damon (Invictus)
1% Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
1% Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
1% Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
That's a bingo!
Best Actress
55% Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
30% Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
10% Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
4% Carey Mulligan (An Education)
1% Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
It is still unfathomable to me that I am actually typing Sandra Bullock and Oscar in the same sentence.
Best Actor
80% Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
10% Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
5% Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
4% Colin Firth (A Single Man)
1% George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Hard to begrudge The Dude winning an Oscar, but Colin Firth's performance in A Single Man was unparalleled.
Best Director
40% James Cameron (Avatar)
39% Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
11% Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
5% Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
5% Lee Daniels (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
Kathryn Bigelow is only the fourth woman to be nominated for best director. No woman has ever won the the award. I don't see the Academy breaking that glass celling anytime soon. Bigelow does have one thing working in her favor: James Cameron is a notorious asshole.
Best Picture
52.98% Avatar
37% The Hurt Locker
3% Up in the Air
2% Up
2% A Serious Man
1% An Education
1% Inglourious Basterds
1% Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
.01% The Blind Side
.01% District 9
Although Hurt Locker is the critics' darling, I can think of 714 million reasons why the Academy is going to opt for Avatar.
posted by d l wright at 3/06/2010 11:17:00 PM
2 Comments:
Still surprised the Academy went with The Hurt Locker over Avatar. I came across a pretty good quote yesterday: "About half as many people saw Bigelow's picture in its entire theatrical run as saw Cameron's on its opening day."
And wouldn't you know it, after getting screwed last year for picking the shorts I liked best, they go and win this year. The Oscars is a capricious bitch.
No excuses for the Writing Awards. I just go hosed.
I suppose it's good that Avatar didn't win. Strangely, though, I find myself equally disinterested in the Hurt Locker. (I haven't seen either.)
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