And the award goes to...

It is Oscar season again. You know the drill: Catholic psychoanalytics and choleric ineffectualness.

A couple of weeks ago we surveyed the Best Picture wins and were dismayed by how abysmal the 00 picks have been. Crash and Milliondollar Baby keep me up at night. And Gladiator? Chicago? Is this really how we want to represent the cinematic decade?

At least Babel, this year's sexy pick, is inoffensive. Don't get me wrong, I love Iñárritu, but his movies have strictly followed the law of diminishing returns. Babel lacks the striking Biblical allusions of Amores Perros and the fascinating philosophical undertones of 21 Grams. And it really could have jettisoned half of the plot strands for a leaner narrative, but I guess Arriaga had to really stretch the "we are all connected" wankery for the academy.

Anyway, here are my predictions for Academy night. Feel free to look back and laugh at my poor soothsaying Monday morning. There are two categories, first is who I think will take the prize (ie. Hollywood realpolitik), and second, who should walk away with it.

[One last side note: I will take an Eastwood win for best director or best picture as clear empirical proof that God or any other deity does not exist.]

And the winner is...

Actor In A Leading Role:
Will Win: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Should Win: Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Whitaker wins because he is playing against type, but Gosling deserves the props for his subtle performance.

Actor In A Supporting Role:
Will Win: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Should Win: Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe go fuck yourself.

Actress In A Leading Role:
Will Win: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Should Win: Helen Mirren (The Queen)

Helen Mirren is such a babe.

Actress In A Supporting Role:
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Should Win: --

I cannot comment about this category because I never saw Dreamgirls and none of the other nominees inspire me.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Will Win: William Monahan (The Departed)
Should Win: William Monahan (The Departed)

Did anybody see the Director's Cut of Kingdom of Heaven? I hear the additional footage salvages the film.

Writing (Original Screenplay):
Will Win: Peter Morgan (The Queen)
Should Win: Peter Morgan (The Queen)

The Queen is a movie of marvelously small details. And way more entertaining than it has any right being.

Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: El Laberinto del Fauno
Should Win: El Laberinto del Fauno

No competition. Although The Lives of Others and Days of Glory look awesome. If anybody is looking for some others to Netflix, I whole-heartedly endorse Three Times, The Child, and The Death of Mr. Lazarescu.

Directing:
Will Win: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Should Win: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Hearing Scorsese talk about all the film allusions sprinkled in The Departed made me love the movie even more. I am going to punch a wall if he doesn't win.

Best Picture:
Will Win: Babel
Should Win: The Departed

If Little Miss Sunshine wins, I will vomit.