Oscar odds.
I'll be posting my 2007 movie list on Sunday to correspond with the Oscars.
In the meantime, here is my completely non-professional and non-insider predictions for the 80th Academy Awards.
Be sure to check in on Monday and mock me in the comments section for my terrible soothsaying skills (if I haven't gone back an edited my picks, that is).
Bold = Will win, Italics = Should win
Best Supporting Actor
80% Javier Bardem
13% Hal Holbrook
5% Tom Wilkinson
1% Casey Affleck
1% Philip Seymour Hoffman
All due respect Bardem, but Wilkinson set the tone of Michael Clayton with his feverish opening monologue. Also, a special shout out to Affleck for his haunting impish little grin.
Best Supporting Actress
35% Amy Ryan
30% Ruby Dee
20% Cate Blanchett
10% Tilda Swinton
5% Saoirse Ronan
The supporting awards are always fairly random and unpredictable. Blanchett's two nominations and recent win in the same category will probably undermine her support. Given the Best Actress odds, I feel the supporting award is going to go to the up and coming star.
Best Adapted Screenplay
55% Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
20% Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
15% Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
5% Sarah Polley (Away from Her)
5% Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
No contest.
Best Original Screenplay
90% Diablo Cody (Juno)
7% Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
1% Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
1% Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
1% Brad Bird (Ratatouille)
This is going to be disgusting.
Best Actress
50% Julie Christie
25% Ellen Page
20% Marion Cotillard
4% Laura Linney
1% Cate Blanchett
The Academy is bound by its own sense of history. Christie last won in 1965. Expect standing ovations.
Best Actor
80% Daniel Day-Lewis
10% Viggo Mortensen
5% Johnny Depp
3% George Clooney
2% Tommy Lee Jones
No contest. Despite the multiple nominations, There Will Be Blood will probably be overshadowed by Day-Lewis's towering performance.
Best Director
30% Joel and Ethan Coen
29% Julian Schnabel
21% Paul Thomas Anderson
9% Tony Gilroy
1% Jason Reitman
The Coen brothers are probably a lock, but I feel the dual-nomination may unsettle traditional Oscar voters. Schnabel's direction is visual stunning and since his movie was locked out of the Best Foreign Picture category, he may pick up some indirect support.
Best Picture
34% Atonement
33% No Country for Old Men
27% There Will Be Blood
5% Michael Clayton
1% Juno
What would an Oscar ceremony be without some crushing disappointment?
In the meantime, here is my completely non-professional and non-insider predictions for the 80th Academy Awards.
Be sure to check in on Monday and mock me in the comments section for my terrible soothsaying skills (if I haven't gone back an edited my picks, that is).
Bold = Will win, Italics = Should win
Best Supporting Actor
80% Javier Bardem
13% Hal Holbrook
5% Tom Wilkinson
1% Casey Affleck
1% Philip Seymour Hoffman
All due respect Bardem, but Wilkinson set the tone of Michael Clayton with his feverish opening monologue. Also, a special shout out to Affleck for his haunting impish little grin.
Best Supporting Actress
35% Amy Ryan
30% Ruby Dee
20% Cate Blanchett
10% Tilda Swinton
5% Saoirse Ronan
The supporting awards are always fairly random and unpredictable. Blanchett's two nominations and recent win in the same category will probably undermine her support. Given the Best Actress odds, I feel the supporting award is going to go to the up and coming star.
Best Adapted Screenplay
55% Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
20% Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
15% Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
5% Sarah Polley (Away from Her)
5% Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
No contest.
Best Original Screenplay
90% Diablo Cody (Juno)
7% Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
1% Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
1% Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
1% Brad Bird (Ratatouille)
This is going to be disgusting.
Best Actress
50% Julie Christie
25% Ellen Page
20% Marion Cotillard
4% Laura Linney
1% Cate Blanchett
The Academy is bound by its own sense of history. Christie last won in 1965. Expect standing ovations.
Best Actor
80% Daniel Day-Lewis
10% Viggo Mortensen
5% Johnny Depp
3% George Clooney
2% Tommy Lee Jones
No contest. Despite the multiple nominations, There Will Be Blood will probably be overshadowed by Day-Lewis's towering performance.
Best Director
30% Joel and Ethan Coen
29% Julian Schnabel
21% Paul Thomas Anderson
9% Tony Gilroy
1% Jason Reitman
The Coen brothers are probably a lock, but I feel the dual-nomination may unsettle traditional Oscar voters. Schnabel's direction is visual stunning and since his movie was locked out of the Best Foreign Picture category, he may pick up some indirect support.
Best Picture
34% Atonement
33% No Country for Old Men
27% There Will Be Blood
5% Michael Clayton
1% Juno
What would an Oscar ceremony be without some crushing disappointment?
posted by d l wright at 2/22/2008 10:21:00 AM
5 Comments:
You don't think Juno can upset? Don't forget. It's the only one of those movies that people have seen.
I know you didn't like it. But, so far, you're the only person I've talked to who didn't.
Okay. 1% is unreasonable. But Oscars for Best Picture don't go out to comedies (unless you count Crash).
I think Forrest Gump would be the closest approximation, but that had huge Star + Director power.
If anything, the Academy likes to share the love, and Juno will gets its from the Best Screenplay, with the off chance of a Best Actress.
Juno is fine (and, I admit I must be in the minority because it made a shitload of money), but it is up against some pretty undeniably Best Picture films.
5/9. . . not great, but not bad.
Mark, I hated Juno so fucking much, I can't even think straight. Logan is in good company with his hate.
Hating Juno seems like a huge waste of effort.
Although I guess I could see why Logan might, in another life he could have be Jason Bateman's character.
P.S. Does anyone know anything about an Arrested Development movie?
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