hideouslyshattered AL East
As Logan pointed out in the comments on my last post (to use the term liberally), baseball might be all we have left after August first or whenever the NBA Finals are set to wrap up this year.
With that as an introduction, I present to you, hideouslyshattered. A project that will surely be abandoned by the All-Star break, but for at least a little while will be my attempt to summarize the red hot leather action that is(n't) our national pastime.
Here's my 3 week late preview, starting with the AL East.
Predicted Final Standings:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Boston:
This is not, as the Boston Herald claimed, The Best Team Ever! But this is the best team in the AL East. They are built kind of like the Yankees. A payroll 28 of 30 teams can't even dream of, 4 or 5 hitters that would be the best bat on most other teams, and pitching that is suspect. The good first: their lineup is probably better than the Yankees. During the offseason they added Carl Crawford who finished 7th on last year's AL MVP ballot and Adrian Gonzalez who finished 4th in the NL. To win you just have to score more runs than the other team, and this team will score a lot of runs.
Now, as to that suspect pitching: Jon Lester is the outlier, a legitimate ace. After that it gets a bit sketchy, the Red Sox are, I'm sure, hoping that Clay Bucholz can reproduce his 2010 success. He won 17 games and had a 2.33 ERA. Not bad for a guy who hadn't pitched 100 in a Major League season before.
Unfortunately that ain't happening. Bucholz' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) a stat that attempts to tell you what a pitcher's ERA should be, was 4.07. Same as it was in '09 when he had a 4.21 ERA. And pretty close to his xFIP from '08 when he threw 76 innings and had an ERA of 6.75. I expect a pretty harsh regression for Bucholz and so far he's delivered with a 6.60 ERA.
Josh Beckett will pitch pretty well when he's healthy. He just might not be healthy. John Lackey is, well, John Lackey, he's ok, but nothing more. And Matsuzaka has been a wild card thus far in his MLB career. If the Sox need to replace a starting pitcher they might turn to 96 year old Tim Wakefield, exciting.
New York:
Second verse, same as the Red Sox. Crazy good hitting all over this lineup. A legit ace in CC Sabathia. Then. . . big fat Bartolo Colon? Freddy Garcia? Ivan Nova? Please. The Yankee pitching isn't just bad, it's terrible, no good, very bad. They do have their own version of Clay Bucholz, Phil Hughes, who wasn't really even that good last year and just got sent to the DL because he sucks.
Still, that lineup will win a lot of games. And I'm sure they'll try to trade for some pitching before the year is out.
Tampa Bay:
I really hope I'm wrong about the Rays not winning the East. I love this team, but I think they're a year and a piece or two away. Their pitching is super talented, but probably a bit too young. And they could use another bat. Preferably at shortstop. If you haven't been paying attention the Rays started the year with Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon on their team, but Manny retired when the league confronted him with yet another failed drug test. Just Manny being Manny!
I think the Rays are the most exciting team in the league to watch. Manager Joe Maddon is open minded and tries new things, things that make sense all the time. Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker could learn a lot. Evan Longoria is the best player in baseball. There, I said it. Love to see the Rays make the playoffs this year, but my gut tells me they won't until 2012.
Toronto: Not a lot to see here. Decent pitching, and mediocre offensive talent. For some reason the Blue Jays have decided to stock up on outfielders that can't really hit but can steal bases. Unfortunately outside of Jose Bautista, who is sure to come crashing back to earth this year, there's noone to bat them in.
I will say that if this pitching staff were to trade places with the Yankees' each one would be a threat to win 20 games.
Baltimore Orioles:
This team will not win many games. They play in the toughest division in baseball and have no players in the top 50 in the league. Probably two in the top 100. The are bad.
To recap: Red Sox and Yankees will likely pound teams into submission, the Rays have the talent to win the division, but it is probably not developed enough.
Stay tuned for the next installment of hideouslyshattered, the AL Central! Ooooooh.
With that as an introduction, I present to you, hideouslyshattered. A project that will surely be abandoned by the All-Star break, but for at least a little while will be my attempt to summarize the red hot leather action that is(n't) our national pastime.
Here's my 3 week late preview, starting with the AL East.
Predicted Final Standings:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Boston:
This is not, as the Boston Herald claimed, The Best Team Ever! But this is the best team in the AL East. They are built kind of like the Yankees. A payroll 28 of 30 teams can't even dream of, 4 or 5 hitters that would be the best bat on most other teams, and pitching that is suspect. The good first: their lineup is probably better than the Yankees. During the offseason they added Carl Crawford who finished 7th on last year's AL MVP ballot and Adrian Gonzalez who finished 4th in the NL. To win you just have to score more runs than the other team, and this team will score a lot of runs.
Now, as to that suspect pitching: Jon Lester is the outlier, a legitimate ace. After that it gets a bit sketchy, the Red Sox are, I'm sure, hoping that Clay Bucholz can reproduce his 2010 success. He won 17 games and had a 2.33 ERA. Not bad for a guy who hadn't pitched 100 in a Major League season before.
Unfortunately that ain't happening. Bucholz' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) a stat that attempts to tell you what a pitcher's ERA should be, was 4.07. Same as it was in '09 when he had a 4.21 ERA. And pretty close to his xFIP from '08 when he threw 76 innings and had an ERA of 6.75. I expect a pretty harsh regression for Bucholz and so far he's delivered with a 6.60 ERA.
Josh Beckett will pitch pretty well when he's healthy. He just might not be healthy. John Lackey is, well, John Lackey, he's ok, but nothing more. And Matsuzaka has been a wild card thus far in his MLB career. If the Sox need to replace a starting pitcher they might turn to 96 year old Tim Wakefield, exciting.
New York:
Second verse, same as the Red Sox. Crazy good hitting all over this lineup. A legit ace in CC Sabathia. Then. . . big fat Bartolo Colon? Freddy Garcia? Ivan Nova? Please. The Yankee pitching isn't just bad, it's terrible, no good, very bad. They do have their own version of Clay Bucholz, Phil Hughes, who wasn't really even that good last year and just got sent to the DL because he sucks.
Still, that lineup will win a lot of games. And I'm sure they'll try to trade for some pitching before the year is out.
Tampa Bay:
I really hope I'm wrong about the Rays not winning the East. I love this team, but I think they're a year and a piece or two away. Their pitching is super talented, but probably a bit too young. And they could use another bat. Preferably at shortstop. If you haven't been paying attention the Rays started the year with Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon on their team, but Manny retired when the league confronted him with yet another failed drug test. Just Manny being Manny!
I think the Rays are the most exciting team in the league to watch. Manager Joe Maddon is open minded and tries new things, things that make sense all the time. Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker could learn a lot. Evan Longoria is the best player in baseball. There, I said it. Love to see the Rays make the playoffs this year, but my gut tells me they won't until 2012.
Toronto: Not a lot to see here. Decent pitching, and mediocre offensive talent. For some reason the Blue Jays have decided to stock up on outfielders that can't really hit but can steal bases. Unfortunately outside of Jose Bautista, who is sure to come crashing back to earth this year, there's noone to bat them in.
I will say that if this pitching staff were to trade places with the Yankees' each one would be a threat to win 20 games.
Baltimore Orioles:
This team will not win many games. They play in the toughest division in baseball and have no players in the top 50 in the league. Probably two in the top 100. The are bad.
To recap: Red Sox and Yankees will likely pound teams into submission, the Rays have the talent to win the division, but it is probably not developed enough.
Stay tuned for the next installment of hideouslyshattered, the AL Central! Ooooooh.
posted by b r christensen at 4/19/2011 11:17:00 AM
3 Comments:
I know it doesn't matter in a league where the regular season is something like 600 games, but how come Boston is so bad right now?
Ellsbury, Youkillus, and Crawford are hitting below .200. They are all three around .300 for their careers. I'd say that's the main thing. The team as a whole is 27th in the league in hits, they'll probably finish the year in the top 5.
It probably didn't help that everyone was hyping them up so much too.
Thanks. Now, when you get to the AL west, sell me some magic syrup that will make me believe that maybe the Mariners won't be terrible this year.
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